Overnight – Nvidia drags market higher, Presidential debate offers no economic clues

A Nvidia led surge dragged the market higher overnight as the Presidential debate offered no economic insights and stubborn inflation numbers dragged on the broader market

Tech was led higher by NVIDIA, climbing more than 8% as U.S. government is mulling whether to lift ban that would allow the chipmaker to export advanced chips to Saudi Arabia, Semafor reported Wednesday, citing unnamed sources. The surge in Nvidia pushed other chip stocks as well as the broader tech sector higher.

The CPI Inflation reading dented 50-basis point Fed cut bets as the headline US consumer prices rose by 0.2% on a monthly basis in August, matching July’s rate, but the core figure accelerated slightly, potentially denting the chances that the Federal Reserve will introduce a more aggressive cut to interest rates at its upcoming policy gathering. The month-on-month headline US consumer price index met economists’ expectations, along with the annual figure, which slowed to 2.5% from 2.9% in July. Meanwhile, core consumer prices, which strip out more volatile items like food and fuel, edged up by 0.3% month-on-month, faster than estimates of 0.2%. Year-over-year, the reading came in at 3.2%, in line with forecasts and equaling July’s pace. The August CPI data muddies the waters a little bit on trying to assess the persistence of the current disinflationary trend.  

The odds of a 50 basis point cut fell to 16% from 34% a day earlier, with the market now pricing in an 84% change of a 25bps cut at the September meeting, up from 66%.

Trump-Harris debate offers few policy details Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and Democratic rival Kamala Harris exchanged barbs in a fiery debate on Tuesday, clashing on everything from immigration to the economy. On the debate stage, Harris took aim at Trump’s policy of imposing high tariffs on foreign goods, arguing that it would effectively be a tax on the middle class. Trump defended the plan, saying it would not lead to higher prices for Americans, and attacked Harris for overseeing a period of elevated inflation during the Biden administration’s term. However, analysts at TD Cowen argued that this was “not a debate about the economy.” “We did not have substantive discussions of the key economic issues including if the White House should play a role in setting interest rates or how tariffs may impact inflation and economic growth,” the analysts said in a note to clients. Bets favored Harris in the immediate wake of the debate, with the current Vice President’s odds of winning the ballot increasing to 56% from 53% before the event, according to data from online prediction market PredictIt cited by Reuters.