Maggie Lake interviews Kevin Muir : Streamed Live Oct 22nd 2024
Date: 28/10/2024
*** GENERAL AVICE ONLY***
In the interview with Maggie Lake, Kevin Muir shared three significant trading ideas:
- **Dark Side Bets on the S&P 500**: Kevin Muir suggested considering “dark side” bets, such as puts on the S&P 500, particularly around the November 8th expiry. He believes the market is overestimating the chances of a Trump victory in the upcoming election, which could lead to a surprise outcome like a “blue sweep.” This could result in market volatility that traders might capitalize on by betting against current market optimism.
Traders Thoughts : Kevin thinks market is on one side and his happy to be contrarian. Best way to express this view is buying puts with expiry just after the election results
1. **Investing in Gold Miners**: Muir expressed a preference for gold miners over gold itself. He noted that while gold has been performing well, driven by central bank demand, the miners might offer more potential upside. This is because they have historically underperformed but are now positioned to benefit from rising gold prices and improved earnings. He suggests that investors might find better opportunities in gold mining stocks as they catch up with the broader market trends. Traders Thoughts : Here’s a chart of Spot Gold (Red) vx GDX (Blue). GDX looks like its outperforming if you look at a % basis, but from experience you would have made more money trading Spot as its got in built leverage
For the ASX traders here, best 2 gold stocks on ASX are NST and NEM
1. **Canadian Resource Stocks**: Muir highlighted Canadian resource stocks as a promising investment, particularly those with assets denominated in Canadian dollars but revenues in U.S. dollars. He believes that if the Canadian dollar weakens further, these companies could become highly profitable due to their cost structure and revenue streams. He advises focusing on companies with significant Canadian assets and hedging against currency risk for non-Canadian investors.
Traders Thoughts : In the interview Kevin is actually more bearish on CAD rather than bullish TSX stocks. Looking at chart of USDCAD though, its near top end of range and hard to be buying at these levels. Yes it could break out, which is what he in implying but better to wait for some dip to buy
TLDR
Good Interview between Maggie Lake and Kevin Muir
Maggie use to do interviews for Real Vision and has gone out on her own. She is a solid interviewer, has good market knowledge and allows the guests time to get their points across
Kevin is a solid market commentator but for some reason doesn’t get a big following. He does have some good ideas and points and the way he discusses these points shows he does back his own views with capital
One main takeaway for me from the interview is that Kevin is a bond bear and thinks this will continue. He even calls out Rosie (David Rosenberg) and outlines why they could be hurt trading like the 40 year Bond Bull market will continue
One of the most overvalued markets – the S&P500
Disclaimer: The recommendation given is general advice only. It does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation, or specific needs. This information should not be your sole resource when making such decisions. We strongly recommend you to seek the advice of financial, taxation, and legal professionals before finalising any investment decisions.