Overnight – Rate Stabilization and Economic Outlooks
Equities in the global market presented a mixed bag, with ASX SPI futures declining by 40 points or 0.6%, settling at 7235. Wall Street showcased varied results: the Dow and S&P experienced drops of 0.5% and 0.2% respectively, while Nasdaq reported a modest 0.1% gain. In New York, major firms like BHP and Rio faced slight downturns, whereas Atlassian, Tesla, Apple, and Amazon saw an increase, with Amazon leading the pack with a 2.2% increase. Concurrently, the AUD currency saw a 0.1% uptick, nearing the US65¢ mark. The Bloomberg dollar spot index also progressed by 0.3%.
In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin’s value on bitstamp.net diminished by 4%, dropping to $US26,169. The yield of the US 10-year note experienced a minor decrease, settling at 4.11% by late afternoon in New York. On the monetary policy front, the Bank of England’s chief economist, Huw Pill, indicated a potential stabilization in UK interest rates to manage the prevailing robust inflation. He advocated for a consistent rate profile, termed “Table Mountain”, suggesting a preference for sustained rates over rapid fluctuations. Meanwhile, Bridgewater Associates’ Karen Karniol-Tambour expressed skepticism about the Federal Reserve’s pace in reducing rates. She emphasized that significant rate reductions typically necessitate a rapidly deteriorating economy, a scenario contrasting the current economic landscape.
S&P 500 - Heatmap
The Day Ahead
SPI Futures 7305.3 (+0.1%)
Today’s economic focus revolves around housing and consumer data. Locally, the spotlight is on August’s dwelling prices and July’s housing finance, set to be released at 11.30am. Internationally, New Zealand unveils its ANZ consumer confidence for August at 8am, followed by China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI for the same month at 11.45am. The UK will present its nationwide house prices for August at 4pm, while the US is set to announce its August payrolls at 10.30pm.
In other significant news, the Albanese government’s upcoming alterations to the gig economy could lead to a surge in service prices. Tony Burke acknowledged that these workplace changes might result in consumers paying more for services like UberEats. Additionally, the property sector is under scrutiny as listed property trusts continue to display larger discounts to asset backing, even after recent write-downs. This trend indicates that property valuations might need further downward adjustments.